The Biya-Kamto Impending Electoral Dispute
By Oswald Tebit
12 Oct 2018
With the US State Department stating that
“Any disputes should be resolved peacefully and through established legal channels”.
Which are those legal channels? The courts. Who appoints the Judges of the courts? Paul Biya, who is a player and referee in the electoral process.
Whether Kamto and Akere are lawyers is inconsequential.
Ask the SDF how many electoral cases & disputes they have filed since 1992. (Barristers, Kofele Kale, Ben Muna, Mbah Ndam etc).
I know many people will jump to say oh we are in 2018, it’s the android generation. And so what.
Will an android phone determine a case in court.
The 07th Oct 2018 Presidential Elections on Sunday was a ceremony. In fact a CPDM Ritual.
The reason why Ambazonian Strategist took the strategic move to ban the elections in Ambazonia.
The US State Department is requesting for all parties to follow due process.
And who has the institutions of due process in their favor – Paul Biya & CPDM.
Therefore being a lawyer is inconsequential if the courts and Judiciary are not independent.
I have said here time and again that electoral political transition in Africa through the ballot box is only possible through the following;
1) The establishment of an Independent Electoral Commission (Jerry Rawlings of Ghana and Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria both establish Independent Electoral Commissions that led to their respective ruling parties defeat).
2) The goodwill and faith of the incumbent to concede defeat (Abdul Diouf of Senegal conceded defeat to Abdulaye Wade).
Case Precedence – Electoral Disputes in Africa
Camerroon Presidential Elections 1992
Paul Biya was declared winner.
John Fru Ndi was declared runner-up and placed under house arrest for 3 months. Paul Biya went on to govern without any serious threat from the SDF.
The 2003 Nigerian Elections
The results of the elections which were contested saw Olusegun Obasanjo won a second term.
The Nigerian Army was deployed to quell violence in several parts of the country.
Obasanjo went on to complete his second term of office.
The 2007 Kenyan Presidential Elections.
The results of these elections were contested by Raila Odinga who had 44% of the votes while Mwai Kibaki who won with 46% went on to be sworn President a few hours after the declaration of results due to the violence that erupted proceeding the declaration of the results.
The violence led to the death of over 1000 civilians in clashes with the Kenyan police.
The AU, EU & US intervened to negotiate a Government of National Unity which saw Raila Odinga become Prime Minister.
While Mwai Kibaki went on to complete his term of office.
The 2008 Zimbabwean Presidential Elections
The opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai won with 47% but short of the majority required with Robert Mugabe coming second with 43%.
Tsvangirai pulled out of the second round on grounds of violence against his supporters.
Mugabe went on to win. However, the tensions that proceeded the elections led to the negotiations of a Government of National Unity in which Tsvangirai became Prime Minister.
Mugabe went on to complete his term of office.
The Current LRC Presidential Elections.
With the votes being counted, Maurice Kamto, the candidate of the MRC party has declared himself the winner.
This has led to tensions as to what will happen if he is not declared the winner on or by 22nd Oct when the Constitutional Council will declare the results.
Going by electoral disputes precedence in Africa, it is likely that Paul Biya will be declared the winner, as ELECAM is not independent.
This is likely to trigger violent protest in some of the strongholds of Kamto’s MRC party.
Going by past precedent, the Cameroon security forces will use brute force to quell these protest.
There is the likely hood, Paul Biya will succeed in crushing any protest and maintaining himself in power.
Unwilling to concede defeat in case of victory by Kamto, Biya will be sworn in as President for the 7th term.
Just like in past elections, the international community may criticize the elections but will fall short of requesting Biya to step down.
The international community will only request Biya to step down if Cameroon threatens to tear apart.
The Kamto campaign has a huge challenge in overcoming the various institutions in Cameroon that hold sway to the results of the elections.
What options are therefore left for Kamto? Would he follow up on his statement to fight till the end?
How will he fight? Would he follow due process to challenge the results in court or Would he consider an armed struggle?
Only time will tell.